The News Alert Update: A Challenge to Moody’s Analytics and Reuters’ Computer Model: Predicting the
The News Alert
A Challenge to Moody’s Analytics and Reuters’ Computer Model: Predicting the 2016 Presidential Election
Update: Feb. 2016
A Predictive-Descriptive Artificial Intelligence-Based Expert computer system predicts a Democratic landslide victory in the race for the White House in 2016, whoever happens to be the Democratic candidate. The GOP would require a major and dramatic shift in the electorate to win the White House.
To win the 2016 U.S. presidential election, 270 electoral votes are required out of a total of 538 votes. The Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based, automated expert computer model predicts a potential Democrat win with 324 electoral votes, versus 214 for the Republicans.
Model updated- Feb 2016: We have simulated all the possible statistical scenarios, of the two potential Democratic nominees (Clinton and Sanders) and the five potential Republican nominees (Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson, and Bush). As an average, our model predicts a Democrat win with 316 electoral votes, to 222 for the Republicans, with a potential Democrat landslide win, as high as 337 electoral votes for the Democrats and 201 electoral votes for the Republicans. As an average, our model predicts Clinton-Democrat win with 324 electoral votes, to 214 for the Republicans, and Sanders-Democrat win with 308 electoral votes, to 230 for the Republicans.
Model updated- May 2016: Prior to Feb 2016, we have predicted and ranked the Republican nominees as 1-Trump, 2-Cruz, 3-Rubio, 4- Carson, and 5- Bush. The top three of Republican nominees were 1-Trump (1,053 Delegates), 2-Cruz (565 Delegates), and 3-Rubio (169 Delegates) as we predicted. Rubio has suspended his race for office on March and Cruz has suspended his race for office on May 3, 2016. When Kasich has also suspended his race on May 3, 2016 for Presidential Office, Donald Trump became the Presumed Republican nominee. We have simulated all the possible statistical scenarios, of the two potential Democratic nominees (Clinton and Sanders) and the presumed Republican nominee- Donald Trump. As an average, our model predicts a Democrat win with 314 electoral votes, to 224 for the Republicans-Trump, with a potential Democrat landslide win, as high as 337 electoral votes for the Democrats and 201 electoral votes for the Republicans. As an average, our model predicts Clinton-Democrat win with 325 electoral votes, to 213 for the Trump-Republicans, and Sanders-Democrat win with 303 electoral votes, to 235 for the Trump-Republicans.
Model updated- September 2016: On May 2016, our model predicted a Democrat win with 314 electoral votes, to 224 for the Republicans-Trump, with a potential Democrat landslide win, as high as 337 electoral votes for the Democrats and 201 electoral votes for the Republicans. As an average, our model predicted Clinton-Democrat win with 325 electoral votes, to 213 for the Trump-Republicans. As of September 2016, we have simulated all the possible statistical scenarios, of the Democratic nominees Clinton and the Republican nominee- Donald Trump. With 95% likelihood, our model predicts a Democrat-Clinton win with 315 electoral votes, to 223 for the Republicans-Trump, with a potential Democrat landslide win, as high as 337 electoral votes for the Democrats and 201 electoral votes for the Republicans. As an average and based on all the possible scenarios, our model predicts Clinton-Democrat win with 306 electoral votes, to 232 for the Trump-Republicans.
Note: Ref. The original article was published on October 2015
https://www.experfy.com/blog/predicting-the-2016-presidential-election-and-2025-unemployment-rate-d45dac23-8b41-4004-903f-e0fc73c97d44
http://nikraveshucb.wix.com/analytics#!blog/ch2w
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/news-alert-challenge-moodys-analytics-reuters-model-2016-nikravesh
*The views in this paper is personal view of Dr. Nikravesh’s and it doesn’t represent of his current or future employer. This study has been done when Dr. Nikravesh was with Strategic Consulting.
